How U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Goods Are Shaping Asia’s Poultry Landscape
In early 2025, the United States sharply escalated its tariff regime, applying duties of up to 145% on all imports from China. Of course, this was subsequently reduced to 30% with a tariff truce between U.S. and China that has provided temporary relief to the global economy. While poultry was not specifically targeted, the uncertainty of impulsive tariff policies looms large. At first glance, this might seem like a major disruption to global poultry trade. But in practice, the direct effect on U.S.–China poultry trade is minimal, because those flows barely exist. However, the broader ripple effects across Asia are both real and worth paying attention to.
At Big Dutchman Asia, we believe this moment marks not a crisis, but a strategic inflection point for the Asian poultry industry. As grain markets dislocate and supply chains shift, producers and policymakers alike must think ahead.
China’s Poultry Reroutes, and So Does the Competition
Although Chinese chicken faces the new U.S. tariffs, the reality is that China exports very little poultry to the U.S. In fact, the trade channel has been largely dormant. The real story is where China is sending its growing poultry surplus.
Driven by oversupply at home, Chinese exporters have ramped up shipments to nearby markets such as Hong Kong, Japan, and Russia. As China seeks to offload excess inventory, this shift is reconfiguring regional competition, and that’s where the consequences are more meaningful.
For Asian exporters like Thailand, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, this means navigating new pressure points. While no doors are being opened directly into the U.S., the redirection of Chinese supply into Asia could depress prices and tighten margins in already competitive export markets.
Thailand: Positioned to Capitalise
Among Asian poultry exporters, Thailand is the standout performer and potentially the biggest winner in this shifting environment. In 2024, Thai poultry exports reached record highs, with 320,000 tonnes shipped in Q3 alone. This success was driven by strong demand from the EU and Japan, and bolstered by temporary supply disruptions elsewhere, including avian flu outbreaks in Brazil.
If China begins to consume more of its own surplus domestically, this could open further room for Thai producers to strengthen their presence in premium export markets. On the other hand, if Chinese poultry — especially frozen cuts or processed products — starts flooding regional markets, Thailand will face steeper price competition.
Either way, Thailand’s mature supply chains, export certifications, and strong relationships with high-value markets position it to adapt faster than most.
Input Costs on the Rise: A Region-Wide Challenge
Beyond exports, one of the most immediate and widespread effects of the U.S.–China trade war is the spike in feed costs across Asia.
As China imposes its own tariffs on U.S. soy and corn, it’s shifting massive demand to Brazil and Argentina, which are the same suppliers relied upon by ASEAN poultry producers. For example, Vietnam and Malaysia together import over 1 million tonnes of soy from Brazil annually. Now they’re competing with China for the same supply.
This demand shock is already impacting prices. In Bangladesh, poultry feed costs rose by around 20% year-on-year by late 2023, largely due to more expensive corn and soybean meal on the world market. Similar pressures are building in Vietnam, India, and other feed-reliant countries.
Given that feed accounts for 60% or more of poultry production costs, even modest increases can have significant consequences for producer profitability, especially in more price-sensitive markets.
Cold Chains, Logistics, and Market Access: Under Strain
If Chinese poultry starts flowing southward into Southeast Asia, existing cold chain and logistics infrastructure may struggle to absorb it. Importers may need to invest in storage capacity, temperature-controlled transportation, and port logistics — none of which are quick or cheap fixes.
Similarly, exporters that want to pivot to new markets may face regulatory and infrastructure barriers: halal certification, food safety standards, and import quotas all require time and investment to navigate.
Looking Ahead: Strategic Shifts and Long-Term Growth
Despite the turbulence, the long-term outlook for Asia’s poultry sector remains strong. By 2030, South and Southeast Asia are projected to drive more than half of the world’s poultry market growth, supported by rising incomes and population growth in countries like India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
In this context, two strategic imperatives emerge:
- Investing in Efficiency and Resilience
Whether it’s upgrading disease control systems, improving farm integration, or enhancing processing capabilities, producers across Asia must increase efficiency to offset cost pressures and remain competitive. Digital tools, precision feeding, and supply chain analytics can play a role here. - Diversifying Trade Relationships
With the U.S.–China trade relationship becoming increasingly volatile, Asian countries may turn inward or look to new bilateral and multilateral trade deals. Regional cooperation — such as enhanced China–ASEAN agricultural agreements — may become more important for securing stable feed and food supply chains.
Governments, too, may play a more active role. Food security concerns are rising, with over a third of ASEAN’s population unable to afford a healthy diet. Support for local production, strategic reserves, and protective trade measures could be on the rise — reshaping the balance between imports and domestic output.
Turning Disruption into Opportunity
U.S. tariffs on Chinese poultry may have had limited direct impact, but they have triggered broader structural shifts in trade, supply chains, and input markets. For Asian poultry players, this is not just noise but a call to action.
At Big Dutchman Asia, we see an opportunity for strategic adaptation. Players that invest in efficiency, diversification, and regional trade agility will be well-positioned not only to weather volatility, but to lead in the next phase of Asia’s poultry growth story.